After my gloomy 2009 retrospective, I thought I’d try for a cheery 2010 prognostication. Then I looked at the unemployment rate, continued declines in construction spending, the looming bust of commercial real estate and quickly recalled why I’m a self-described realist (others call it cynic, take your pick).
So how about an even-handed assessment of things to watch for in 2010? Even the cynic can provide that. Here are three big macroeconomic and marketing-specific trends every marketer should follow in earnest:
Macroeconomic Trends
1) Consumer Behavior and Economic Recovery – It’s unclear whether a true recovery stimulated by increased consumer spending will occur. Regardless, marketers should closely track the salience and imprinting of consumer behavior patterns exhibited during the worst of the recession into 2010. Is the ‘cool-to-be-frugal’ mindset permanent? Is consumer spend retrenchment category-specific? How do smart marketers stimulate similar consumer behavior for their brand? Members, join us for a webinar January 28th to hear our take on the recession lessons marketers might soon forget.
2) U.S. Federal Debt and the Declining Dollar – With continued weakness in the world’s reserve currency, US-based companies will find overseas operations ever-more expensive, while the US activities of firms headquartered in Europe or Asia will be hit once by the lack of consumption and a second time by miserable exchange rates. As Congress raises the national debt ceiling, foreign governments will continue to raise red flags on US creditworthiness, potentially impacting cross-border direct investment around the world.
3) Unemployment and Labor Markets – With very few predicting improvement in the overall employment picture, the fact that it correlates too well with discretionary consumer spending bodes poorly for 2010. But for our businesses, there is incredible opportunity to hold on to and find the right marketing talent, without whom the hill to climb will be even steeper.
Marketing Trends
1) Social Media 2.0 – In case you haven’t noticed, social media is kind of a big deal. 2010 will tell us how big a deal. From how Twitter will endure to the privacy concerns inherent in Facebook, the churning sea of social media will quickly separate marketing winners from losers. Fast-cycling failure and embedding social opportunities into marketing communications planning are just two ways to keep up. Members, see our full suite of social media resources here.
2) Organization Structure – Now more than ever, marketers are asking us about the ‘right’ organizational design. Whether looking to achieve cost savings through efficiency, embed digital/social without upsetting entrenched hierarchies, or simply find a new way of doing business, structure conversations are unavoidable.
3) Resurgence of Innovation – As pipelines dried up along with innovation budgets across 2008-2009, there’s a remarkable gap in many categories between the last disruptive innovation and today’s drastically changed customer outcomes. Leading marketing organizations are finding creative ways with budgets to ensure innovation is no longer under-funded as they look to beat competitors into the daylight the economy seems to show.
Best wishes to all our members on a successful 2010. Let’s hope the realist in me becomes a bit happier across the year and puts the cynic to bed.
