Someone smarter than me has surely waxed poetic on the virtue of looking to the past to prepare for the future. Yet if 2009 taught marketers anything, it is that the past is no predictor or guarantee of future performance. Heraclitus figured it out long ago – the only constant is change. 2009 was the year of assumption upheaval, of predictable patterns overturned by equally unpredictable economic conditions. How about a few examples?
- Circuit City still had stores last year at this time
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened the year at 8776 and currently resides at 10497 after a nose-dive to near 6500
- Dubai went from filthy-rich monument of opulence to debt-ridden monument of opulence
- TARP transformed from economy-saving crisis relief to four-letter word that Citi and Bank of America can’t shed fast enough
These events and others sent our marketing executives on an emotional roller coaster that won’t soon be emulated. Let’s play emotion-by-quarter. Q1, scared. Consumer demand plummeted, banks still teetered precariously. Q2, uncertain. Job losses mounted, spending retracted further, but the cliff’s edge didn’t seem quite so close. Q3, ambivalent. Everyone hoped for the turnaround, but no one had complete confidence it would come. Today, encouraged (even hopeful, perhaps).
Back to the clichéd learning-from-the-past bit. If ever there was a lesson that said so much yet gave so little guidance, it applies to 2009 as we look to 2010: expect the unexpected. By no means will 2010 be easy for marketers. Consumers have more control over your brand through social media at the same time companies need to define it to achieve growth. Businesses will continue to haggle on price at the same time unique benefits rule the day. Major legislation sits before Congress to transform sectors of our economy from health care to energy, with potentially long-lasting effects. Buck up, my friends. Another wild ride is coming. Don’t say you weren’t warned.
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