I sense an eerie (and I think false) sense of security from marketers as they enter 2010 planning, that the worst is behind us, we can forecast 1-2% GDP growth for the next 12 months, and the Fed has the financial crisis under control.
After meeting with a regional retail bank, a Fortune 500 CPG company, and a host of planning executives last week, I’m almost frightened by the sense of stability I see in 2010 plans. The picture is not rosy, certainly, but it assumes stability. We seem to have checked any Black Swan thinking at the door. How the economy recovers, its precise trajectory, and changes in consumer behavior are far more volatile than the stability many marketers are putting into their plans. And let’s be honest – too many of us leave those plans on the shelf for 12 months without revision.
Early in 2009, scenario planning – the closest real world applicability to Black Swan thinking – was back in vogue. We need it now too. I can think of two questions that could fundamentally change nearly every marketer’s current plan:
1. What if the economy recovers faster than expected, leading to rampant inflation as bank bailout and stimulus money makes its way into the ‘real’ economy?
2. What if consumers never return to pre-recession levels of spending? What will your market look like in 12 months if either of these comes to pass?
MLC Members: check out Sabre’s quick-fire version of scenario planning to help you through what will likely be another tumultuous year. You can also get our take on how demand has been (and will continue to be) reshaped by the economic conditions of the day. I’m trying hard not to channel my inner Nouriel Roubini here, but we should at least be prepared for whatever the economy throws at us.
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